“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

​10/9/2025

Live Cattle:

​A great deal of expectations are being built into the cattle market.  Cattle feeders expect the supply to continue to drive prices higher while packers expect it to be more difficult to push higher beef prices on to the consumer. I expect more price expanse, in both directions, and further volatility that could be mistaken for violence at times. So far, the past $8.00 higher in fats has yet to increase open interest, leading me to believe that volume will be an issue to contend with going forward.  Industry participants are solidified in their belief the lower supplies will sustain price.  It may or may not.  Lenders are expected to see another new round of credit lines increased as the cost to do business is significantly higher in the past 5 trading days, to the tune of $25.00 higher feeder cattle prices and less than $10.00 on the April fat cattle contract.  The April has put on the most premium of the fats.  October and December have participated the least, mostly due to not much higher cash trade.  Cattle feeders are paying whatever it takes to remain in the cattle feeding business. This may not be a sustainable business model.  

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Feeder Cattle:

Futures traders picked up the slack and have run spring month futures to a near even basis and negative to the remainder of this years contracts. This provides backgrounders with opportunities that did not exist just 5 days ago.  Although President Trumps meeting with Brazil's  President Lula was made public, few, if anyone, mentioned it, or seemed to care.  Today, a comment was made on the Daily Livestock Report that brought this conversation up and noted that further talks would be in the works soon.  I strongly believe that the volatility of the current administration has to be taken into consideration, even if with a grain of salt. As cattle feeders continue to bid to sustain a seat at the table, backgrounders are urged to continue to scotch current price levels.  With nothing foreseen, it leaves a lot of room for something to come from left field, mid air, or around the corner.     

​Corn:

I recommend owning July corn with a sell stop to exit only at $4.28. This is a sales solicitation.  I recommend owning the at the money to $4.80 July corn calls.  This is a sales solicitation.  I recommend owning November '26 $12.00 soybean calls.  This is a sales solicitation.  

Energy:​

​Energy ended the day lower.  I continue to anticipate a softer trade. ​

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Bonds:

​Bonds ended the day soft.  The stagnation of economic movement and lack of information, is keeping bonds trading sideways.  I anticipate bonds to firm in price.  ​

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 “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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